Regulatory and fiscal stability herald bright future for investment in Alaska
There is a renaissance underway on the North Slope driven primarily by two huge projects – Santos’ and Eni’s Pikka development and ConocoPhillips’ Willow. Together, these two, new oil fields will increase production to levels not seen in in two decades.
Despite the challenges that come with operating in the Arctic – high costs, harsh weather, supply chain issues, legal hurdles and fluctuating oil prices –Alaska can expect $22 billion in planned oil and gas industry investment between 2025 and 2030, according to a petroleum economics study by Anchorage-based McKinley Research.
“By 2034, more than 60% of North Slope production will come from fields that, today, have yet to put a single drop into the Trans Alaska Pipeline System,” the study found.
We cannot control many of the challenges Arctic operations bring, but we can maintain fair and stable tax policies that attract the capital needed to keep our resource industries healthy so they can produce jobs and revenues for Alaskans.
Let’s keep Alaska competitive!
What’s at stake
$4B
State & Local Revenue
FY25
70,425
Alaskan Jobs Supported
Direct/Indirect
$0.5B
Grow the Permanent Fund
FY22 Dedicated Revenues to Corpus
$5.8B
Spending with Local Businesses
Annual
Source: McKinley Research for AOGA
Stable tax policy leads to resource renaissance on the North Slope
It didn’t quite go as planned – the first section of the Trans Alaska Pipeline that was installed 50 years ago on May 24.
Here’s the New York Times account: “Two weeks ago Alyeska flew newsmen and dignitaries to witness installation of the first buried pipe at the Tonsina River Crossing 75 miles north of Valdez. A portion of those 1,500 feet of steel later floated to the top of the river, but Alyeska blamed the complications on concrete-weighted collars designed to hold the pipe in place. The company said the situation was corrected a short time after it occurred."
And an account from Alyeska engineer, Bill Howitt, "An empty pipe is buoyant, so it had to be weighed down with a 7,000-pound horseshoe. If it isn’t done right, the pipe comes floating to the surface. The first pipe went in, and there were dignitaries all around (including Sen. Ted Stevens), and everybody clapped, and kind of walked away, and they were almost gone when the concrete weight slipped off, and she came up.”
It took about 2,000 welders – an elite group of craftsmen predominately affiliated with Pipeliners Local 798 – two years and about 71,000 field welds to turn more than 100,000 pieces of 40-foot pipe into the Trans Alaska Pipeline.
Less than five years after arriving in the Alaska oil patch, Australia's no. 2 oil and gas producer joined the elite ranks of North Slope producers.
Santos announced first oil from its Pikka phase 1 development over the weekend. The company is the operator of the project and holds a 51% interest, with partner Repsol holding the remaining 49%. Production will ramp up to 20,000 bbl/day over the next few weeks, capping at 80,000 bbl/day (gross) during the third quarter. Some 28 development wells have been drilled, of which 21 have been stimulated and flowed back in line with pre-drill expectations. First sales revenue is expected to be approximately two to three months following first oil, with Santos and its partner alternating tanker shipments from the Port of Valdez.
Santos Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Gallagher, said Pikka is a tier-one asset in one of the world's super basins. "Alaska has a huge runway ahead of it, which will underpin value-accretive production growth for Santos.
"The Pikka phase 1 project has demonstrated Santos' capability to develop this world-class resource safely, responsibly and efficiently. We are already implementing technical drilling improvements that save time and cost, and we will continue to drive improved performance into the future.
"As we now take Pikka phase 1 into operations, we are transitioning from project execution to our disciplined, low-cost operating model, which will maximize the project's value for our shareholders for the long term,” he said.
Photo Credit: Monica Sterchi-Lowman | Alaska Business
It was all smiles when ConocoPhillips held its first quarter earnings conference call.
- Willow construction now 50% complete
- All four of the planned winter exploration wells complete
- High-priority acreage secured in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska lease sale
In Alaska, ConocoPhillips is winding down another successful winter construction season. ... "Our teams have completed the project’s gravel scope, an important milestone, and mobilization for summer work is underway. We also recently completed our four-well exploration program in Alaska, the first in a multiyear program to leverage existing infrastructure to unlock additional low cost of supply resource consistent with our long-term track record,” said CEO Ryan Lance.
“It’s still early days but we are excited about the opportunity and the results and more low cost of supply resources coming to the greater Willow area,” he said.
“As the broader industry increasingly recognizes Alaska’s unique resource potential, we believe our long-standing position, legacy infrastructure investments and technical expertise provide us with a meaningful competitive advantage,” Lance said.
Photo Credit: © ConocoPhillips Company. 2026. All rights reserved.
Letter from the co-chairs
Fair and Competitive oil taxes are working
There is a resurgence in oil production and jobs in Alaska that is directly related to our current oil tax policy. SB 21, a fair and competitive tax policy, replaced the antiquated ACES tax structure that drove down petroleum investment for more than a decade. Thanks to SB 21, Alaskans have the greatest opportunity of our generation on the North Slope today.
Some present and former legislators argue that SB 21 was a mistake, but the facts speak for themselves.
The Willow and Pikka projects, years in the making, are in active development, with Pikka now expecting first production any day now. These and other robust investments in Alaska’s future would not have occurred under the previous punitive tax regime. Between the Willow and Pikka projects alone, the oil and gas industry is spending over $10 billion in Alaska, with each project generating thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of operating jobs.
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